Founder Securities released a research report, said LiDAR industry chain upstream barriers are high, China's LiDAR upstream core devices are still mainly imported; midstream competition pattern is still stereotyped, domestic manufacturers still have more opportunities. Looking forward to the follow-up, solid state blindness and chip field to give domestic manufacturers more space for growth, the future or the focus of domestic substitution. In addition, downstream applications, automatic driving gradually landing is expected to lead the lidar continued volume, the future of the domestic will have more models equipped with lidar listed.
Founder Securities view is as follows:
LiDAR has a wide range of applications, automobile is expected to become the biggest catalyst.
LiDAR can be used in intelligent driving, smart city and other fields, according to the ranging method can be divided into two categories of ToF and FMCW, ToF program according to the technical architecture can be further divided into mechanical, semi-solid and solid-state type. Specifically, the mechanical type has the advantages of fast scanning speed, high accuracy, suitable for long-distance detection and high-speed movement target tracking, but the structure is relatively complex, high maintenance costs; solid-state type smaller size, longer life and lower failure rate, but the scanning range is limited. Downstream applications, the gradual landing of automatic driving is expected to lead the laser radar continued volume, the future will have more domestic models equipped with laser radar listed.
Overseas manufacturers shuffle accelerated, new technologies continue to land:
1) Innoviz: in-depth cooperation with BMW, won the Volkswagen order of 4 billion U.S. dollars.In 2018, the company announced that it had cooperated with Magna on the BMW project and provided LiDAR for the BMW L3 production model launched in 2021.In August 2022, the company announced that it would provide LiDAR hardware and supporting software to CARIAD, a subsidiary of Volkswagen Group, with a total deal price of 4 billion U.S. dollars, and is expected to deliveries to begin in 2025.
2) Luminar: Accelerating global factory layout. The company focuses on MEMS hybrid solid-state LiDAR field, has launched the Iris sensor with a detection range of 300 meters, is cooperating with Mercedes, is expected to mass produce IrisPlus in 2025. in addition, the company has production bases in Asia, Mexico and Thailand, the globalization layout is accelerating, and the progress of the expansion of production is expected.
3) Velodyne & Ouster: merger operation, the competitive landscape is rapidly reshuffling. 2022 the two companies successfully merged, after the merger will have more than 850 existing customers and rich patent portfolio. With the rapid rise of Tudatron, Valeo, WoSai technology, speed, Huawei and other manufacturers, once occupied more than 80% of the global LiDAR market share of Velodyne market share has shrunk.
Downstream application accelerated penetration, LiDAR shipments to improve.
According to the global LiDAR solutions by application market size data given by Scorch Knowledge, the smart driving car market size of about 3.4 billion yuan in 2022, to 2030 CAGR up to 103%, the scale will break through the trillion. Considering the safety of autonomous driving, LiDAR solutions have basically become the standard for L3 level and above, and L3, L4 and L5 level autonomous driving or an average of 1, 2-3 and 4-6 LiDAR respectively. At present, China is in the transition stage from L2 to L3+, and the L2 and L3 penetration rate of new cars for sale in China in 2022 will be 35% and 9% respectively, and is expected to reach 51% and 20% in 2023.
The market scale is expanding, and domestic manufacturers are accelerating their rise.
Lidar industry chain upstream barriers are high, the current upstream core devices of China's Lidar is still mainly imported; midstream competition pattern is still stereotyped, domestic manufacturers still have more opportunities, 2021 speed Teng Polytron has been located in the global Lidar enterprise market share of the second. Prospect follow-up, solid state blindness and chip field to give domestic manufacturers more growth space, the future or the focus of domestic substitution.
