I. Core Bottleneck: Supply-Demand Imbalance in Optical Interconnects Driven by AI Expansion
The explosive growth of AI computing has surged the demand for high-speed data transmission within data centers. However, silicon photonics integration solutions are limited by their material bandgap structure and cannot generate light autonomously, making them reliant on InP lasers as the core light source. According to warnings from leading overseas optical communication giant Lumentum, the current shortage of InP lasers is even more severe than that of memory chips. Their shipments are currently over 30% below customer demand, and the gap continues to widen. This phenomenon indicates that the bottleneck for AI development has shifted from "computing chips" to "optical interconnects."
II. Industrial Opportunities: A Breakout Window for Three Key Sectors
The extreme shortage of InP lasers is reshaping the value distribution across the entire optical communication industry chain, presenting significant opportunities in the following three areas:
Upstream Core Raw Materials: The production of InP heavily relies on high-purity indium. As the world's largest producer of primary indium (accounting for about 70% of global output), China holds an inherent advantage at the resource end. With InP being included in export controls, the strategic position of upstream high-purity indium and substrate material enterprises is further highlighted.
Midstream Optical Chips and Lasers: Domestic optical chip companies with IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturing) capabilities are accelerating their breakthroughs. For instance, domestic enterprises have successfully developed epitaxial growth processes for 6-inch InP-based lasers, with key performance metrics reaching internationally leading levels. This is expected to reduce the cost of domestic optical chips to 60%-70% of 3-inch processes, speeding up domestic substitution.
Downstream Optical Modules and System Integration: Chinese enterprises now occupy half of the top ten global optical module suppliers. Facing upstream bottlenecks, leading domestic optical module manufacturers are actively promoting the import verification of domestic InP substrates. By adopting a "chip-module" collaborative design, they are securing supply chain safety and gradually transforming from single-product output to comprehensive "optical interconnect solution" systems.
III. Technological Evolution: Supply Bottlenecks Accelerate the Adoption of New Technologies like CPO
Facing the capacity bottleneck of traditional pluggable optical modules regarding InP lasers, the industry is accelerating the shift toward highly integrated Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology. CPO significantly reduces power consumption and increases bandwidth density by co-packaging the optical engine with the switching chip. Although the mass production of CPO is also constrained by the supply of upstream InP laser chips, this technological trend will force the industry chain to accelerate capacity expansion. In the future, companies that master core capabilities in epitaxial growth, chip manufacturing, or silicon photonics integration will hold a stronger initiative in this round of technological iteration.
